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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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