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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
INDONESIA DELAYS PLAN TO RAISE COAL ROYALTIES AMID PLUNGING PRICE - JP
The government will postpone a plan to increase royalty payments from coal miners as they are already burdened with the commodity’s plunging ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP LOST M-M AND GAINED W-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.15 per MT (-2.51%) month over month to US$ 44.62 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 27 July 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 545,000 MT OF COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase total 545,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal ...
Monday, 27 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WEAK M/M; FIRM W/W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.92 (1.77%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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