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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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