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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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