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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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