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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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