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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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