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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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