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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
CPP MARKET : POSITIVE IN THE SHORT TERM - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Despite the traditionally quieter summer period, the clean tanker market has so far experienced healthy activity especially East of Suez. Increased ...
Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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