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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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