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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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