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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALL $1.12 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 23 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 2.32 ...
Monday, 22 June 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT 140K MT OF LCV COAL FOR AUGUST - SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase 140K Metric Tons (MT) of LCV coal for ...
Monday, 22 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: UP MONTH OVER MONTH; DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.30 (0.58%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 22 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: UP WEEK OVER WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.54 per MT (1.19%) month over month to US$ 45.87 per mt. The swap was ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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