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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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