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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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