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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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