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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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