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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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