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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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