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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 March 15
ADARO RECORDED A 7% INCREASE IN EBITDA OF $877 MILLION IN 2014
“Coal market continues to be difficult and challenging” – Adaro Energy
The world’s Top 5 thermal coal exporter, ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
CAPESIZE : ACTIVITY IS LOW; PANAMAX: BIT MORE ACTIVITY; HANDY: A FIRMING WEEK
Handy
It has been a firming week in both hemispheres this week and especially in the Pacific, says Fearnleys AS in its week's week report.
...
Thursday, 12 March 15
COAL MINERS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE AS GLUT CONTINUES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia’s major coal miners reported a significant drop in their earnings last year as the sharp drop in the global demand, mainly from Chi ...
Thursday, 12 March 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DROP TO $47.33 A TON IN THE WEEK ENDED MAR.6
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.37 (0.78%) month ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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