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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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