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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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