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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
 Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off were hard to believe. In those days China’s total imports were below 400mtpa and the ore trade had been sluggish for a decade. But even the most bullish forecasters were way below target and in 2014 seaborne iron ore imports jumped 15% by 119mt to 914mt.
Ironing Out The Bumps
This was more than total Chinese seaborne imports which only grew by 65mt in 2014. Coal and metal imports both fell sharply, and the resulting 3% rise was the lowest since the Asia crisis in 1998. So dry bulk should say a very big thank you to Chinese iron ore importers for keeping some water under the hull.
Economic Discomfort
The problem now facing analysts is that the 2014 growth of iron ore imports does not appear to hang together with the rest of the steel economy. Construction slowed and shipbuilding output fell 14%. Overall steel demand decreased 3%, which makes the reported 1% growth in steel output look high. The real driver of import growth was a surge in low-cost ore production by major Australian miners, forcing out higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere. But estimates of the impact on domestic Chinese iron ore production vary, and official statistics suggest total output growth of 4%. Even after accounting for the falling grade of domestic ore, the figures don’t quite fit together.
Inscrutable Statistics
What’s going on? It’s a crucial question. Under-reporting of steel production could be a factor, and historical data has been revised up before. The 50% drop in iron ore prices last year may have led to stock building across the supply chain, or impacted domestic output to a greater extent than reported. Either way, it is clear that steel exports have surged, while strong Australian ore output depressed prices and kept Chinese imports firm.
Market Consequences
The worry for the dry bulk market is if Chinese demand falls enough to dampen imports. There are legitimate concerns that the construction and infrastructure programs which drove the steel industry over the last decade are facing serious problems. One issue is that the financial foundation of this growth is looking shaky. The debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply since 2010, much of it “back door debt” arranged by the provinces. As one leading economist put it at a conference in Long Beach California this week, “no country has ever escalated debt on this scale without something happening”. He thought the options are a crisis or a decade of slow growth.
Troublesome Times?
So there you have it. Thanks to Chinese steel, in the 2000s the bulker market enjoyed the biggest boom in history. Whatever the position over the debt mountain, readjusting the capital side of the economy will take time. A positive response is that we’ve been worrying about Chinese trade for the last 5 years – somehow the accident never happened, and there’s more low-cost mine expansion underway. Will our star performer continue to ride its luck? Time will tell. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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