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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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