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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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