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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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