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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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