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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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