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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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