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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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