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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08  ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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