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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
Sunday, 01 March 15
BDI INDEX SLIGHTLY UP CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE PANAMAX, SUPARAMAX AND HANDY SIZE INDICES
COALspot.com: The freight market saw some gains this week and BDI was up 5.26 pct closed at 540 points. However the Cape index failed to follow BDI ...
Friday, 27 February 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AN ESTIMATED 14.0% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 16.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET COULD REBOUND FROM HISTORICAL LOWS IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. T ...
Thursday, 26 February 15
COAL POLICY RISK: HIGHER ROYALTIES FOR IUP HOLDERS - BAHANA SECURITIES | JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry plans to raise coal royalties charged to mining operation permit (IUP) holders by the end of the first qu ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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