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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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