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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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