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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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