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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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