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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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