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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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