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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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