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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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