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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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