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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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