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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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