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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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