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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last s ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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