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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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