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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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