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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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