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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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