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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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