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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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