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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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