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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry bulk market noted another weekly decline on Friday, with the performance of the Capesize market still weighing down on the re ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
COMMODITIES AREN'T PRIMED FOR A REBOUND DURING 2015: SHIPPING COULD BENEFIT FROM LOWER PRICES - ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In the recent past, higher commodity prices were driven by an increase in demand from developing countries, which spelled good news for ship owners ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.51% LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.56 per MT (-3.0%) month over month and US$ 1.03 (-2.0%) week ove ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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