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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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