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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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