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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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