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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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