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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 February 15
ULTRAMAX LEVELS FROM INDIA TO CHINA IN THE MID US$ 5000'S - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there is a scent of optimism in the Atlantic market for ppt dates. Continent is still struggling with o ...
Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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